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Expect an unexciting set of results in 1Q24E, potential recovery in 2H24E

原文出处: 招银国际   贡献者:研报专业户
三一国际(00631)\r

SANYI is set to report1Q24E financial data on16May(this Thu).We forecastSANYI to deliver a~15%YoY decrease in net profit from a high base,due to(1)miners’disciplined capex as a result of the decline in domestic coal productionin1Q24;(2)keen competition in certain products such as hydraulic supportsand wide-body trucks;and(3)a loss-making solar power segment.Despite thenear-term headwind,we expect a potential recovery in2H24E on the back ofimprovement in solar business and low base effect for mining equipmentsegment.We also expect strong demand overseas for large mining trucks&telescopic handlers will help counter the potential down-cycle of coal miningmachinery.Maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of HK$8(still based on11x2024E P/E).\r

Preview on1Q24E results:\r

Pressure on mining equipment.We forecast mining segment revenue todrop~15%YoY due to(1)a decrease in coal mining equipment sales;(2)aslowdown of wide-body truck sales,which may offset the relatively stronggrowth of large-size mining trucks.We expect keen competition hascontinued for certain products such as hydraulic supports and wide-bodytrucks,which should exert pressure on margin.\r

Growth to continue for logistics equipment.We forecast logisticsequipment revenue to grow~25%YoY,driven by decent growth of small-size port machinery and a solid backlog of large-size machinery.We expecttelescopic handlers remained a major growth driver in1Q24\r

Solar power:loss-making at a beginning stage.SANYI’s solar powerbusiness includes solar products,equipment,solar farms&EPC.We expectthe segment was in a loss-making state in1Q24E given the decline inTOPCon cell price.That said,we expect the potential completion of someEPS projects will help reduce the loss going forward.\r

We expect net profit of~RMB550mn(-15%YoY)in1Q24E.We expecttotal revenue in1Q24E to grow~4%YoY(note:no revenue contributionfrom oil&gas equipment in1Q23).We expect both gross margin and pretaxprofit margin to drop in1Q24E,due to competition in certain miningequipment and higher opex on emerging businesses.\r

Major risk factors:(1)weakness of coal mining activities in China;(2)higher-than-expected loss from emerging business;(3)a rebound of rawmaterial costs;and(4)a rising debt ratio due to high potential capex on newbusinesses.
6.24 -0.79% -0.05

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